Fairfax-Ipsos poll – April 2017

Filed under: Politics, Australian Politics, Elections, Opinion Polls,

The first Fairfax-Ipsos since November has Labor leading the Coalition by 55 to 45 per cent, an increase of eight points since the previous poll.

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, interviewed from 22-25 March and published on Monday 27 March, showed the Labor party up 4 points since November and the Coalition down 4 points, based on 2016 election preferences. This indicates a 5.4 per cent swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election.

The two-party stated preference vote also shows a lead for the Labor Party on 56 per cent (up 5 points since November 2016) and the Coalition on 44 per cent (down 5 points since November 2016).

The two-party preferred vote is a big dip since the July 2016 election result, when the Coalition narrowly won by 50.4 per cent to 49.6 per cent. In November's Fairfax-Ipsos poll, Labor led the Coalition 51-49.

First preference votes put Labor on 34 per cent, up 4 points since November 2016, and the Coalition on 33 per cent, down 3 points since November. The Greens lead the minor parties with 16 per cent, which is unchanged since November. One Nation is on 2 per cent and others are on 15 per cent, down 3 points since November.

Malcolm Turnbull continued to lead as preferred prime minister but on 45 per cent, down 6 points, to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on 33 per cent  (up 3 points).

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has fallen to 40 per cent, down 5 per cent and his lowest approval rating since becoming Prime Minister. His disapproval rating was 48 per cent (up 3 points since November). This gives a net approval of -8 (down 8 points since November), his lowest approval rating since becoming PM.

Mr Shorten’s approval rating was 35 per cent (down 2 points), with 53 per cent disapproving (unchanged since November). This gives a net approval of -18 (down 2 points since November).

Commenting on the poll in Fairfax papers Mark Kenny wrote, “Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister and has a better net approval rating than Shorten, as well. But in all other respects, it is the opposition leader who is influencing the race, creating turbulence for the government on penalty rates, welfare changes, negative gearing and marriage equality.”

He wrote, “If Turnbull's party room was buoyed last Monday by a Newspoll that had the Coalition closing to within just four points (48-52), MPs will be muttering now about a recovery that didn't even get to that dismal five minutes…. The pre-eminent question now becomes, which of the two surveys more accurately reflects voting intentions right now? One pointer is that an Essential poll returned numbers on Tuesday identical to this Fairfax-Ipsos result”.

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