Fairfax-Ipsos poll – October 2017

Filed under: Politics, Australian Politics, Elections, Opinion Polls,

The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll was published Monday 11 September and conducted 6 to 9 September. Details were first published in INSIDE PUBLISHERS Federal Political Briefing on 15 September 2017.

The first Fairfax-Ipsos poll for four months showed Labor on an unchanged lead of 53 to 47 per cent on the two-party preferred vote.

Fairfax said “Bill Shorten's popularity and standing as preferred prime minister has taken a hammering from voters, but Labor has kept its election-winning lead over the Turnbull government.

“The findings, contained in September's Fairfax-Ipsos poll, show Labor has maintained the 53 per cent to 47 per cent lead in the two-party preferred vote it enjoyed in May, based on 2016 election preference flows.

If repeated on election day, there would be a 3.4 per cent swing away from the Turnbull government. If that movement was uniform, this would trigger a loss of 16 seats – which would comfortably hand power to the ALP given the government's slim one-seat majority.

Fairfax said, “Labor strategists will be concerned at the big dip in voters' assessment of Mr Shorten's performance; approval of the Opposition Leader fell 6 percentage points since May, from 42 per cent to 36 per cent while his disapproval spiked from 47 per cent to 52 per cent, a statistically significant net 11 point shift.

“Mr Turnbull's standing as preferred prime minister also rose 1 percentage point to 48 per cent, while Mr Shorten fell 4 percentage points to 31 per cent, widening the gap between the two men from 12 to 17 percentage points.

“Offsetting these negative trends for Labor, Mr Turnbull's approval rating has fallen 3 percentage points since May to 42 per cent, and his disapproval has risen 3 percentage points to 47 per cent – placing the Prime Minister into net negative territory, according to voters' assessments.”

The primary vote of both the Coalition and Labor fell in the poll, to the benefit of the minor parties, with the Coalition's vote falling 2 percentage points to 35 per cent, Labor down 1 percentage point to 34 per cent, the Greens rising 1 point to 14 per cent and “others”, including the Nick Xenophon Team and One Nation, rising 2 percentage points to 17 per cent, compared with May.

When voters were asked how they would allocate preferences – rather than relying on 2016 preference flows – the contest between the two major parties narrowed slightly, with Labor's lead reduced to 52 to 48 per cent.

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