Newspoll – October 2017

Filed under: Politics, Australian Politics, Elections, Opinion Polls,

Newspoll’s two-party preferred result is continuing to move in a narrow range.

The latest Newspoll conducted 5 to 8 October and published 9 October showed Labor leading the Coalition 53 to 47 per cent, from 54 to 46 per cent in the previous poll two weeks earlier. Each of the last five Newspolls has moved between 53 to 47 per cent and 54 to 46 per cent.

The Coalition’s primary vote was unchanged on 36 per cent while Labor’s primary vote fell to 37 per cent from 38 per cent previously.

The Greens rose to 10 per cent from 9 per cent previously, One Nation was unchanged on 8 per cent and Others were 9 per cent, up from 8 per cent previously.

Malcolm Turnbull improved his result as preferred prime minister slightly to 43 per cent from 42 per cent, but the margin between him and Bill Shorten remained unchanged at 11 points. Mr Shorten’s support as preferred prime minister rose to 32 per cent from 31 per cent previously.

New satisfaction for Mr Shorten as Opposition Leader was unchanged at -20 while Mr Turnbull rose from -20 to -17.

Newspoll also published its detailed quarterly state breakdowns showing that Malcolm Turnbull had lost more ground with voters across regional Australia which The Australian said was “a danger sign for his government in key marginal seats, with a new analysis showing core support for the Coalition has fallen from 44 to 34 per cent in the regions since last year’s federal election.

“The government has increased its primary vote in Victoria, South Australia and NSW but the gains have not been enough to halt the national trend towards Labor, which has cemented its national lead in the latest quarterly Newspoll analysis of thousands of voters.

“Mr Turnbull has kept his ascendancy over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister with his personal support lifting in the same three states, during a period when he has stepped up his attack on Labor over energy prices.

“The quarterly Newspoll analysis, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor continues to lead the Coalition by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, holding the same advantage for three consecutive quarters this year.”

The Australian said, “In a shock result for the government in one of its key constituencies, the Coalition’s primary vote among voters outside the five capital cities fell from 36 to 34 per cent over the three months to the end of September.

“The outcome is the government’s lowest result in regional Australia since it secured a narrow election victory last year with a 44 per cent primary vote outside the capitals, 10 percentage points higher than the new polling.

“In a dramatic turnaround, Labor now has stronger core support than the Coalition among voters outside the capital cities, with its primary vote rising from 34 to 36 per cent over the quarter.”

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