Opinion Poll Overview – September 2017

Filed under: Politics, Australian Politics, Elections, Opinion Polls,

The latest Poll Bludger BludgerTrack was published on Saturday 26 August. It showed Labor leading 54.0 to 46.0 per cent on the two-party preferred vote from 53.1 to 46.9 per cent the previous week and compared to 53.3 to 46.7 per cent two weeks earlier.

Poll Bludger’s William Bowe wrote there was “A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.”

He wrote there was “A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor.

“The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states.

“The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.”

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